What happens if I make this bet?

Set up a leveraged prediction-market bet. See your liquidation point, daily cost, best case, and worst case — in plain language.

What are you betting on?

The question

The market currently thinks it's… 60% likely to happen

This is the public price (think Polymarket / Kalshi). 50% means the market is split; 90% means most people think it'll happen.

You're betting…

How much money, and how big do you want to play?

You're putting in $100

This is the maximum you can lose. Even if everything goes wrong, you can't lose more than this.

How much "boost" do you want?

Higher boost = bigger wins AND bigger risk. A 5× boost means your $100 controls $500 of position size. 5× the upside, 5× the downside.

When does this question get answered?

Holding longer = pays more in daily fees. Holding right up to resolution is expensive — fees ramp up as the deadline approaches.

Here's what happens

Updated automatically as you change inputs above.

🎯

If you're right at settlement

—

💸

If you're wrong

—

You can't lose more than what you put in.

⚠️

Liquidation price

—

⏱️

Cost to hold (per day)

—

Where everything sits on the probability scale

Market60%

You bought at60.1%

Liquidate here40%

Settles at100%

0% (NO wins) 50% 100% (YES wins)

Plain-English summary

Adjust the inputs above to see your bet explained.

Want to see fee accrual hour-by-hour, run live events, test scenarios?

What this calculator simplifies

This is a plain-English estimate for a single bet. The numbers use the real LEVER v1.1 math, but with healthy platform defaults (deep TVL, a funded insurance fund, and a balanced order book) so you can focus on your bet rather than platform conditions.

No live-event mode. When an event goes live, real fees and margins tighten sharply. This calculator assumes the event is not yet live.
No volatility / depth / concentration penalties. On a volatile, thin, or crowded market the protocol allows less leverage and charges more. Here those are assumed healthy.
No extra-collateral rules. Big, volatile, or busy-market positions can require more collateral than the base leverage implies (initial-margin adjustments). Those aren't applied here.

Want all of this modelled live? Use the advanced simulator.